Politics
Has Putin succeeded in Establishing the Foundation of a Superpower System
Outside the Russian Federation?
President Putin / Russian Federation
Dr.: Anmar Nizar Al-Droubi
The talk is about the debate and the unprecedented historic event on Monday 21/2/2022 when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his country’s recognition of the independence of Ukraine’s two breakaway regions, Donetsk and Lugansk, and signed two decrees recognizing Russia of the two republics, asking the Russian parliament to immediately recognize this decision. As well as the talk about what is happening today in Ukraine, are all these events a movement of historical and strategic correction of what is coming within the framework of an international order to be reshaped?
President Putin is not the secretary of the Communist Party and being the president of the Russian Federation is different from the Soviet Union, and he is not the Tsarist that the Russian Church gives divine right, and he does not deserve the crown studded with the name of the Bolshevik Revolution expressing the dictatorship of the proletariat in the Marxist ideology. So how do we measure the distance of domination in the mind of President Putin, as a result, it is a historical lesson that Putin has given to the world since the days of Stalin’s rule.
Historically:
Putin’s move toward Ukraine has historical justifications, because historical facts confirm that there is a close connection between Ukraine with Russia, whether it is Tsarist Russia or Communist Russia, as evidenced by the fact that Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, was called (Kiev Russia). If we talk about the foundation of the first political entity in this region in the 13th century (Kiev Russia) to the extent that during the communist period, Russia voluntarily renounced territories that belonged to it such as Crimea to Ukraine.
Putin’s move toward Ukraine has historical justifications, because historical facts confirm that there is a close connection between Ukraine with Russia, whether it is Tsarist Russia or Communist Russia, as evidenced by the fact that Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, was called (Kiev Russia). If we talk about the foundation of the first political entity in this region in the 13th century (Kiev Russia) to the extent that during the communist period, Russia voluntarily renounced territories that belonged to it such as Crimea to Ukraine.
Regarding the Strategic Correction:
Undoubtedly, this correction is due to the end of the Cold War, that war that left ambiguous questions, and these questions remind us of the end of World War I and the great fines and consequences that were on Germany, so Germany tried to correct the way the First World War ended and resulted of World War II, it ended up creating a new international order. In sense that the wrong way the Cold War ended was the consequences of the conflicts the world is witnessing today, and Russia is trying to correct the mistakes from its point of view, which will end up creating a new international order, with evidence that we are no longer talking about possibilities but talking about an existing situation.
Undoubtedly, this correction is due to the end of the Cold War, that war that left ambiguous questions, and these questions remind us of the end of World War I and the great fines and consequences that were on Germany, so Germany tried to correct the way the First World War ended and resulted of World War II, it ended up creating a new international order. In sense that the wrong way the Cold War ended was the consequences of the conflicts the world is witnessing today, and Russia is trying to correct the mistakes from its point of view, which will end up creating a new international order, with evidence that we are no longer talking about possibilities but talking about an existing situation.
The Doctrinal Dimension of the Crisis:
The most prominent thing that can be noted is the suicide operation carried out by the Ukrainian soldier or officer who blew himself up at the end of February 2022 on a bridge in Ukraine to disrupt the progress of a tank belonging to the Russian army, and this is the biggest evidence of the idea of armed struggle and street war, then it is ideology or doctrine because such suicide operations remove the Russian-Ukrainian conflict from its political, military, and strategic dimensions, to turn it into an ideological conflict.
The most prominent thing that can be noted is the suicide operation carried out by the Ukrainian soldier or officer who blew himself up at the end of February 2022 on a bridge in Ukraine to disrupt the progress of a tank belonging to the Russian army, and this is the biggest evidence of the idea of armed struggle and street war, then it is ideology or doctrine because such suicide operations remove the Russian-Ukrainian conflict from its political, military, and strategic dimensions, to turn it into an ideological conflict.
The American and Western Position on the Crisis and Whether Western Reactions were as Challenging the Russians or Less?
It is known that the geographical scope of the Atlantic Alliance is America, the Atlantic, and Europe, because the basis of this alliance was against the Warshaw alliance, and the new strategic development is for the first time that China was mentioned. In our time, NATO has become not limited to its geographical scope but covers any point in the world. And when we talk about the West, it is not a homogeneous bloc, especially in dealing with Russia, specifically dealing with President Putin, while the party that leads the West is the United States of America since the arrival of US President Biden to power, and Biden's talk in his election campaign or after his election, in which he focused on the following:
It is known that the geographical scope of the Atlantic Alliance is America, the Atlantic, and Europe, because the basis of this alliance was against the Warshaw alliance, and the new strategic development is for the first time that China was mentioned. In our time, NATO has become not limited to its geographical scope but covers any point in the world. And when we talk about the West, it is not a homogeneous bloc, especially in dealing with Russia, specifically dealing with President Putin, while the party that leads the West is the United States of America since the arrival of US President Biden to power, and Biden's talk in his election campaign or after his election, in which he focused on the following:
1. Biden announced that his administration will work hard to create an alliance of democracies toward autocracies (a dimension in rhetoric). Biden immediately held its first democracy summit in December 2021. Therefore, the introductions were to indicate that the international system that took the formation is on its way to a clash, but this clash was not known, especially since the predictions indicate that the clash may be between the United States of America and its allies and partners on the one hand, and the second side between China in the first place and Russia in the second place.
2. Start creating a set of alliances, including the Ox Alliance announced in September 2021, including Australia, Britain, and the USA.
3. At Biden’s first summit in March 2021, he gathered the so-called Quartet (America, Australia, Japan, and India). The goal of this summit and this alliance was to attract China, according to US statements.
4. At the NATO summit held in June 2021, it was decided that in June 2022, a NATO summit will be held in Madrid and the alliance will issue at this summit the so-called (NATO Strategic Framework). As a result, America postponed the issuance of the National Defense Document and the Nuclear Readiness Document of the United States of America.
Russian President Putin has been watching all these moves and has been able to analyze Biden’s strategy deeply and correctly, which means that Putin understands the view of US strategy as China as the first competitor or first opponent. But according to Putin, Russia has a presence, in the same context, the shift towards a multipolar system is the slogan raised by China and Russia several years ago, and the world today is facing its implementation with the presence of a pole like Russia that can make fundamental decisions with complete independence from Western influences. On the other side, the West is at a loss and looking for an appropriate response to Russia. This cancels the calculations and rules of the international system several years ago with the uniqueness of the United States of America and the uniqueness of the West in guiding the path of the international system and its leadership is now over.
According to the above, can it be said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has now found the moment conducive to reviewing and amending the effects of the Cold War according to his calculations and as follows:
According to the above, can it be said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has now found the moment conducive to reviewing and amending the effects of the Cold War according to his calculations and as follows:
1. There was one explanation about the end of the Cold War: the victory of the United States of America and the loss of the former Soviet Union. But today Russia says that it did not lose the Cold War, and confirms that it was not defeated in the Cold War, but the end of the Cold War in this form was the result of agreements between it and the United States of America and from the point of view of the Russians that America violated this agreement. In the sense that the dismantling of the Soviet Union and the eastern bloc gaining its independence was a Soviet will, and that the United States of America made promises to the Russians, specifically after Germany unites, that NATO will not expand even one inch, and this is what James Baker said, but it is not written on paper. But then the United States of America used the logic of force and the victor.
2. In 2018, Putin attended the Russian parliament and on a large screen showed a set of new weapons and said at the time "I hope anyone hears us" but no one heard him.
3. In the spring of 2021, Putin made much smaller energy than we see today, conducting exercises and maneuvers on the Ukrainian border. Putin forced the United States to hold a summit between them, then he received an invitation from US President Biden, and on July 16 the Biden-Putin summit was held in Geneva. At this summit, the parties agreed to form working groups that discuss strategic stability and reduce tensions. But all Biden did was agree on Feb. 5 to extend the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and neglected all the working groups formed after the summit and so far.
4. There is a conviction among the Russians, China and Iran as small players that American power is in decline and that the commitment of the United States of America to its allies abroad has been significantly weakened.
So we are facing a new stage, especially as the most prominent demands made by the Russians to NATO and the Americans are as follows:
1. Stopping the expansion of NATO to the eastern European border i.e., to the Russian border.
2. Commitment to pre-1997 where NATO was neither in Eastern European countries nor in the countries of the former Soviet Union such as the Baltic states such as Estonia and Latvia and currently in Ukraine and Georgia.
3. Stopping the deployment of strategic missiles and strategic aircraft and canceling US bases in Eastern European countries, especially Romania and Poland.
These are Russian demands that Putin considers to achieve peace and security in Europe and all over the world.
2. Commitment to pre-1997 where NATO was neither in Eastern European countries nor in the countries of the former Soviet Union such as the Baltic states such as Estonia and Latvia and currently in Ukraine and Georgia.
3. Stopping the deployment of strategic missiles and strategic aircraft and canceling US bases in Eastern European countries, especially Romania and Poland.
These are Russian demands that Putin considers to achieve peace and security in Europe and all over the world.
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